TRENDING SCIENCE: These animals will survive climate change

Our planet’s animals, plants and other organisms are at risk of extinction. Climate change is playing a major role, of course. Many are struggling to survive during this climate crisis.

According to findings published in ‘eLife’, scientists can now predict which animals will be able to adapt and survive. To what extent will ecosystems withstand climate change?

“That is the big question and the background for our study,” commented co-author and biologist John Jackson in a University of Southern Denmark (SDU) news release.“We can see a clear pattern: Animals that live a long time and have few offspring are less vulnerable when extreme weather hits than animals that live for a short time and have many offspring,” explained co-author Owen Jones, an associate professor at the SDU’s Department of Biology.

Llamas, bats and elephants will probably outlive mice, possums and rare marsupials. This is because they usually live longer lives on average and have fewer offspring. Larger animals that live longer can survive, reproduce and raise their offspring in harsh conditions such as drought and heavy rainfall in a much more sustainable way than smaller ones that live less. The larger animals can focus their energy on one offspring or remain patient until more ideal conditions come. In these same conditions, the smaller animals might starve because food such as insects and plants die off more quickly.

To analyse which animals are more likely to be able to withstand the effects of climate change, the researchers used population fluctuation data from 157 of the world’s mammal species gathered over a period of 10 or more years. They then compared this data with weather and climate data compiled from the same time period. The research team used this data to demonstrate common themes in animals’ reactions to extreme weather.

Other animals less impacted by extreme weather include the Siberian tiger, chimpanzees, the white rhinoceros, grizzly bears and the American bison. A few more that won’t be so lucky when the very bad weather hits are the Canadian lemming, the Arctic fox, the common shrew and the Arctic ground squirrel.

There are many more factors involved in evaluating a species’ vulnerability to extinction than withstanding climate change: “Habitat destruction, poaching, pollution and invasive species are factors that threaten many animal species - in many cases even more than climate change,” elaborated Dr Jackson, currently a postdoc at the University of Oxford in the United Kingdom.In addition to this specific set of 157 species, the research gives more insight into how animals will react to ongoing climate change. The results can be applied to an even wider group of animals.

“We expect climate change to bring more extreme weather in the future. Animals will need to cope with this extreme weather as they always have. So, our analysis helps predict how different animal species might respond to future climate change based on their general characteristics – even if we have limited data on their populations,” concluded Prof. Jones.